Why Predicting Extreme Rainfall in Mumbai Is Becoming More Difficult

Why Predicting Extreme Rainfall in Mumbai Is Getting Harder

Mumbai is on orange alert again due to days of heavy rain. The weather department predicts more heavy rain in some areas. On July 20, the Andheri Subway had to be closed temporarily because of waterlogging.

What Happened Recently?

On July 8, early in the morning, Mumbai experienced heavy rainfall, causing widespread waterlogging. This disrupted train services, led to flight cancellations, and caused many BEST buses to be rerouted due to flooded streets. The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) reported that the city received over 300 mm of rainfall between 1 am and 7 am that day. By July 14, Mumbai had recorded 862 mm of rainfall, exceeding its monthly average of 855.7 mm in just two weeks.

Although some forecast models predicted rain, none expected the intensity and amount, especially on July 8. This led to criticism of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on social media, with people questioning the accuracy of their forecasts.

Why Is It Hard to Predict Extreme Rainfall in Mumbai?

1. Complex Weather Patterns: Mumbai’s weather is influenced by a combination of the Arabian Sea, Western Ghats, and urban infrastructure. These factors create complex weather patterns that are hard to predict accurately.
2. Rapid Urbanization: The city’s rapid growth changes its landscape, affecting local weather patterns and making predictions more challenging.
3. Climate Change: Global climate change is causing more unpredictable and extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall.
4. Technological Limitations: Despite advancements, weather forecasting technology has its limits, especially for short-term, high-intensity events like sudden downpours.

These factors contribute to the difficulty in accurately predicting extreme rainfall in Mumbai.